Introduction
The digest of International Security Notes for August 29 covers:
- European immigration
- the fate of the Iran deal in the US Senate
- Taliban gains in Afghanistan
- Russian naval strategy and armaments
- an update on the Saudi-Yemen conflict.
Each Tuesday and Saturday you get a roundup of the most important news items related to war and peace. Of course, you get some commentary mixed in for some needed flavor.
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Top 5 International Security Notes
1. L’afflux des migrants, un défi inégalé pour l’Europe /The influx of migrants, unparalleled challenge for Europe
Headlines throughout the week underscored the seemingly unstoppable flow of immigrants by sea and land into the European Union. Hungary and Austria grapple with the crisis. Italy is a prime magnet jutting into the Mediterranean Sea across from war-wracked Libya, and Tunisia, raising national security concerns besides the crimes of human trafficking and smuggling. The EU appears paralyzed - unable to influence the causes of the inflows (turmoil in Middle East and North Africa) and cope with the sheer numbers arriving on its shores.
2. Democrat Filibuster of Iran Deal?
The cosmetic US congressional vote on the green light for the plan to propel Iran expeditiously into the global nuclear club may not even occur. The UN Security Council already unanimously approved the deal in late July, trumping the domestic vote. Iran, for its part, is moving full steam ahead with its ballistic missile program to deliver nukes, and Russian S-300 systems to defend it. US President Obama will likely get his victory over domestic opponents without any change in US-Iran relations in an accord rejected by a majority of the US public.3. Taliban advances in Afghanistan's Helmand Province
The long predicted, eventual Taliban recapture of Afghanistan ,after a US-led NATO retreat, sails along. The rapidly deteriorating security situation already prompted US President Obama to announce last May a delay in a precipitous pullout. The Helmand Province had hosted two of the largest bases- US and British - and site of tough fighting with Taliban. NATO continues to hand over more territory to ineffective Afghan police and army forces.4. New Russia Navy Strategy
Not since 2001 had Russia officially updated its maritime doctrine.
Highlights include:
- a return to Russian shipbuilding (after the canceled purchase of French Mistral helicopter carriers following the Ukraine invasion?)
- emphasized ballistic and nuclear missile subs in North and Pacific Fleets
- greater attention to the Atlantic
 |
| Russian Bomber |
Add naval adventurism to the list after the boost to the Black Sea Fleet following the wresting of Crimea from Ukraine and the curious case of Akula-class subs operating in the Gulf of Mexico undetected by the US.
President Vladimir Putin's gambit is to make the best of Russia's traditional land power strategic situation with a major naval buildup.
5. Coming Battle of Sana'a, Yemen
The Iran-Saudi Arabia battle for Yemen rages on the road to the capital, Sana'a in the hands of Shia Houthis backed by Tehran. The US-supported Saudi-UAE coalition force is preparing to take the capital. However, multiple interests are involved in the country at the Bab-el-Mandeb, a strait located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula, and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa. This prime real estate connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal. Beyond the Sunni-Shia fractricide, two of the biggest winners, ironically, in wake of a victory by Riyadh could be some of the oldest players in the area, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS. Another consequence would be the new Saudi assertiveness spurred by Washington's fling with its cross-Persian Gulf foe, Tehran.
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A. J. Phelps is a pseudonym for an analyst of global affairs and author of international thriller fiction. Check out his debut novel, Havana Dawn.
Follow him on Twitter at ajphelpsauthor1.
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photo credit - Marion Doss/flickr - creative commons - no alterations to photo.
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