Top 5 International Security Notes - Sept 19, 2015

Introduction

[Read the last International Security Notes here]

The digest of International Security Notes for Sept 19, 2015, covers:

• Russia in the Mid East
• Newest military phenom - Hybrid War
• Fiasco: US Effort to Field Syrian Rebels
• Countering China in South China Sea
• US Humiliation by Iran

Visit every Tuesday and Saturday for your brief on the Top 5 issues about international affairs. Enjoy!

Subscribe to the RSS feed to stay informed.

Top 5 International Security Notes

 

1. Russia eyes entire Mid East, not just Syria

Russia is back in business in the Middle East just as the current US Administration retreats by design. The so-called Iran Deal brokered by the US, but supposedly to be implemented by the toothless IAEA, was apparently Moscow's opening. While the West seems flummoxed, Putin continues to push into Syria to preserve his naval base in Tartus, and back his good client Asad with Flanker fighter jets,  attack helicopters, and possible combat troops. Some observers warn of a coming US-Russia clash over Syria. Moscow eyes a more muscular presence in the region to bolster its Mid East ambitions as US credibility shrivels.

2. Newest military phenom - Hybrid War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated hybrid war or creative uses of the full-spectrum of warfare, mixing and matching conventional/unconventional, regular/irregular, and information and cyber warfare. NATO even doubts hybrid warfare exists while prepping for it at the same time. Inevitably, resourceful observers conjure its antidote - hybrid defense. Others debate hybrid warfare to defeat Europe.

3. Fiasco: US Effort to Field Syrian Rebels

The current US Administration's categorical botch of Mid Eastern affairs is singularly apparent in the comical attempt to build a rebel force to fight ISIS in Syria. An outlandish plan for 5,000 fighters magically transformed into a puny cadre of 54 by July. The string of disasters resembles a car wreck - some captured by al Qaeda's Syria wing, Nusra Front, others fled back to Turkey where their commander was bombed to death earlier, united Ankara and Riyadh despite differences, and now converted to a switch to a new modus operandi - directing fleeting US air strikes and embeds with Kurdish forces. Self-inflicted wounds abound for Washington's failed Mid East policies.

4. Countering China in South China Sea

Beijing continues to project its power beyond its large land mass on the Asian continent and chip away at US naval strength in the region. Satellite imagery confirms a possible third airstrip under construction on artificial islands at the Fiery Cross and Subi reefs in the contested Spratly Islands. As reported in the previous International Security Notes, adversaries are pressing their advantage against a weak Washington across the globe. China's project to manufacture islands out of the many reefs and shoals in the South China Sea also fortifies the strategy of the PLA’s investment in antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities (aimed at the US 7th Fleet). Thus, the development and deployment of large numbers of highly accurate antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) comprises a key component of Beijing's gambit to exploit US irresolution and push Washington out of the Pacific.

One salutary effect - regional partners like Vietnam and Japan uniting efforts to balance China when and where the US won't or can't.

5. US Humiliation by Iran

Not content with whimsically dumping long-time US ally Mubarak for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (later corrected by people power in Cairo), not even deterred by failures in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and soon-to-be in Afghanistan, the current US Administration prides itself in clearing the path for Iran to become a nuclear military power with ballistic missiles to deliver them, seemingly unconscious of both the regional and global ramifications. Washington has transformed the Middle East irreparably and left US credibility in tatters. That Iran so easily humiliates the United States is just as embarrassing as the "deal" to eliminate international sanctions and ostracism of Tehran. Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani visited Moscow - in defiance of current sanctions - even before the "deal" has been implemented. 

In an "oh by the way" moment, Iran recently admitted an "unexpected" trove of high uranium reserve, highlighting a key problem with the JCPOA (deal) - there is no accurate accounting of Tehran's progress on its secretive nuclear project or of the amount of highly-enriched uranium, in order to construct a benchmark, making verification impossible. While individual countries take stock of the "deal" (like India's embrace), the US suffers self-invited humiliation (even via Iranian video) while its arch enemy in the Middle East marches inevitably to attain the military means and money to threaten its interests worldwide and its citizens in the Homeland.

Please retweet this post to your friends. - Thanks!
_____________________________________________________________
A. J. Phelps is a pseudonym for an analyst of global affairs and author of international thriller fiction. Check out his debut novel, Havana Dawn.  

Follow him on Twitter at ajphelpsauthor1.